Research

Job Market Paper

• “Climate Change and the US Macroeconomy: Time-Varying Parameter Approach with Stochastic Volatility”

  This paper supplements the study of Kim, Matthes and Phan (AEJ:Macro, 2025) by employing a vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients model so that the analysis about the impact of the climate change to the key US macroeconomic variables is available for all periods of data, not just the startpoint and the end of the periods. This paper endogenosuly finds the structural breakpoint of the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) data and provides its importance in the impulse response analysis of inflation.

  This research shows the evolution of the changing effects of a climate change shock to the growth in inflation, industrial production output, and unemployment rate from 1975 to 2024. Inflation responses dampen more rapidly, whereas the initial impact becomes larger over time. The output production growth decreases immediately after the climate shock and excerbates over time. Unemployment rate tends to have its re-hiring process disappeared later.

  Also available at SSRN

Working Paper & Work in Progress

• “Global Oil Price and its Impact on South Korean Macroeconomy”

  This paper studies the changing effects of the global oil change onto the South Korea macroeconomy. The initial oil price shock brings an increase in inflation, an increase in production and an increase in unemployment rate. Such effects have a variation in time such that the initial response of the production from the oil price shock drops from the year 2008 and it changes its sign to negative since 2014.

• “Weather and large macroeconomics variables”

• “On Differentiation of Digital Duopoly With Heterogeneity in Values” (pre-doctoral research)